The Projected Final Eredivisie League Table

This is the projected final standings of the 2012/13 Eredivisie.

These projections are derived from the teams Total Shots Rates so far this season. The TSR is calculated by dividing the total number of shots taken by a team by the total number of shots taken and conceded. If a team takes 10 shots in the match and concedes 15, this team’s TSR would be 10 / (10 + 15) = 0.400.

Historical data shows TSR to correlate very well to the amount of points in the final league table and this historical data is used to create an expected number of total points over the season with that particular TSR. This expected number of total points is than multiplied by the fraction of games still to be played and added to the actual points already obtained this season so far.
For example, suppose a team has a TSR of 0.520 over the first half of the season and has obtained 30 points over the first 17 matches. Based on historical data, a season-long TSR of 0.520 would correlate to 50 points. Half of the season is still to be played, so half of those 50 points would be added to the 30 points already obtained to make a projected total points at the end of the season of 55. This also explains the fact that some teams with higher TSR’s are projected to finish below teams with lower TSR’s. Luck simply allowed the lower TSR teams to obtain more actual points than their performance level in terms of TSR warranted.

The major caveat with TSR’s, and subsequently with these projections, is that they don’t correct for level of opposition, but then again, that obviously also holds true for the well respected classical league table.
Therefore, the TSR has been replaced by the Relative Shots Rate (RSR), which computes team performance in relation to the performance of other teams against the same opponents. More on that specific method can be found here.

An extensive explanation of the method used for the projected final league table concept can be found here.

Data provided by Infostrada Sports.

Leave a Reply