Shooting stars of the Eredivisie

Only six matches remain in the 2011/12 Eredivisie and the title race is closer than ever. No less than six teams are still in contention for the title, being separated by only four points. At the bottom of the table, VVV has made an impressive come-back, to seriously threaten ADO and NAC for survival.

With the league entering its final stages,  this post will dive into the summarized offensive and defensive performances, looking to identify which teams have both their offensive and defensive performances in order for the most important matches of the year.

 

Offense

Let’s first look at the offensive performances. The graphs below depicts the teams according to the amount of shots created per game and the conversion rate of those shots. The ‘shooting star-like’ appearance comes from the fact that the performances over the first half of the season (17 matches) have been separated from  the performances in matches after the winter break. Hover over the start- and end-points of the lines to find out the actual values for different teams. Links to high resolution downloads can be found here for the offensive graph and here for the defensive graph.

 

The upper right hand corner is the area where teams with both a high number of shots and a high conversion rate will be found. It is clear that Ajax has had the best offense at present, while their short line indicates a constant performance over the season. Twente’s offense also comes in quite good, with less shots than Ajax, but a superior conversion rate.

To round off the title pretenders, Heerenveen also shows a constant performances and a high conversion rate with an above average number of shots, while Feyenoord have made an interesting shift across the map. Their first half of the season seemed to depend on shot creation, while the second half is focused on conversion. The fact the they moved in a practically diagonal direction indicates that the decline in number of shots was compensated by an improved conversion and vice versa.
PSV moves in an alarming direction, with a decrease in both number of shots and conversion, while AZ loses half a shot per game and 3% conversion.

Other remarkable shifts are to be seen at VVV, where Ton Lokhoff took over during the winter break. VVV has produced over 3 shots per game more, with a comparable conversion. An even sharper decline than at PSV is shown by Groningen, who’ve shown a dramatic decrease in both shots and conversion, to find themselves among the relegation candidates in offensive terms.
A final mention goes out to Vitesse. The only foreign owned team in Holland slipped up in terms of conversion, losing 4% there, but completely made up for it in terms of shot creation, moving from 12.3 to 17.5 per game.

 

Defense

The same graph can be created for defensive performances, this time showing the amount of shots conceded and the conversion rate allowed. In this graph, the lower left hand corner shows the best defense, while the upper right hand corner indicates serious defensive problems.

 

The eye-catching outlier here is PSV, whose dramatic conversion rate allowed of 0.196 reflects their performances in the games against Twente (2-6 loss at home with 8 shots conceded) and NAC (3-1 loss away with 7 shots conceded). Despite conceding the third lowest number of shots, this extreme conversion rate ranks their defensive performance over the second half of the season among relegation favorite Excelsior and out-of-form Groningen.

Remarkably, one of the best defensive performances has been turned in by promoted team RKC, who combine an excellent amount of shots allowed per game with a superbly low conversion rate allowed. Given their mediocre offensive record, this stunning improve in defense has been the base for their rise from 13th at the winter break to a solid ninth place with six matches to go.

Jan Wouters’ effect on Utrecht, where he took over in October, is shown with a significant improve in defense, coming at the price of a slightly decreased offensive performance. Most relegation threatened teams have improved their defensive record, with less shots conceded per game and less conversion allowed for all three of ADO, VVV and Excelsior. However, at De Graafschap the number of shots allowed has gone up.

In our half-season review, looking at the same parameters, we’ve mentioned N.E.C. as a team to watch for the second half of the season, and Alex Pastoor’s team hasn’t failed to live up to these expectations. N.E.C. has developed the best defense over the past eleven Eredivisie matches.

 

The title contenders

With only six matches to go, more value may be attributed to the performances in the past eleven matches than to the performances in first half of the season. Combining offensive and defensive performances should lead to the conclusion that Ajax seems the hot favorite to win the Eredivisie title. Heerenveen surges recently due to their improvement in the number of shots conceded. Twente is slowly slipping up in defensive terms, while Feyenoord have moved in the opposite direction. Both teams’ offensive performance seems quite constant.

PSV moves in the wrong direction both in offensive and defensive terms making their title bid more dependent on their excellent first half of the season than on their present form. Finally AZ, until recently the league leaders, but by now trailing Ajax by a point. Their offensive efficiency has let them down recently, while their defense remains on par with title rivals Ajax, AZ and Feyenoord.

This post has been created with data provided by Infostrada Sports and it has been inspired by the work of Ben Mayhew at the excellent experimental 3-6-1 website, follow him at Twitter @experimental361.

2 thoughts on “Shooting stars of the Eredivisie

  1. Bart

    Hi,

    Interesting post … more a fan of these types of posts than the game analysis ones. 🙂

    Anyway, some interesting comments though I must say I do not watch Dutch soccer but only read about it. Furthermore, I know that goalies are only one small part of defense it starts with the strikers. Here’s some things I have read …

    – De Graafschap … since they fired their coach they have hired a soul-killing coach who makes them sit very deep, soaking up attacks … They have gone from a dangerous position to a bleak position in the tables … it would seem that playing defensively to ensure survival has been very counterproductive … maybe teams will realize it is better to go down trying after seeing their performances. (though they still play Excelsior so that will be the decider)

    – FC Utrecht … not only has Wouters taken the reins but they’ve also had a goalie change! The ineffectual and over-aged Van Dijk (13 games) has been replaced with Fernández (13 games) and Cummins (2 games) … what is interesting about this is that Fernández has been labeled a liability, however, not only have shots against gone up but conversion rate is down! Surely, one of the factors has to be the goalie in this … either Van Dijk is terrible (yup) or Fernández is not as bad as he actually looks … interesting note, before Fernández came to Utrecht he played for Racing Club in Argentina, they are known to be extremely defensive (Simeone was their coach) and aggressive though the club performed very well, Wouters may have instilled this mentality and Fernández may be a type who enjoys seeing a lot of shots to get into a game.
    This last is speculative and intangible, still interesting how a goalie can seem one type but in combination with the defense proves otherwise.

    Cheers,
    bart.

    Reply
  2. Pingback: Je moet schieten, anders kun je niet scoren

Leave a Reply